Friday, October 10, 2008

Thoughts on "Junk Mail"

I've been calling myself a "Junk Mail Expert" for years (decades?). One night I was at the head table with Dr. Gene Del Polito. After introducing myself, I explained that people feel empowered when I use the term. We are actually giving our recipients the right to throw away our beautiful (or not) creativity, GUILT FREE.

Lest you think that trivial... tell me what else fits? Even the spoilage in the fridge lets us know that we bought too much, didn't cap the bottle or haven't cleaned regularly. Only junk mail can be tossed aside with no thought that "I might need this some day." No worries, more will come! This is the foundational basis for the Supreme Court allowing us to directly intrude peoples' homes. "The distance from the mailbox to the trash can is sufficiently short not to constitute an invasion of privacy."

Gene got up to give his speech... somewhere in the middle he was overcome with uncharacteristic passion... He pounded the podium looking straight at me..."How are we going to be taken seriously and get decent rates... when even WE call it 'JUNK MAIL'"?

Like it or not its here to stay... if I'm not in the market for a car, then all the dealership mail is junk... if that little red light starts blinking those same mailers are carefully evaluated. It isn't about us... we work harder than ANY medium to be relevant. It is market's core dynamic that there are more prospects than buyers. "Junk mail" is a tongue-in-cheek reminder that it is OK to market, that we are not communistic, that free enterprise is alive and well... God Bless America!!!

Monday, June 23, 2008

"Statistics are no substitute for judgment." Henry Clay

Why is it that statistics have such a hold on our brain? In the '80's businesses could lure investors simply by displaying their data on computer generated graphs. In the classic book, How to Lie with Statistics, by Darrell Huff, W.W. Norton & Co., New York, 1954 (reissued in 1982 and 1993), we gain some insight into the way our minds interpret data.* The book is really more about how we hear and see the portrayal of data.

Boiling it down, our eyes make judgments about the light that is hitting them. Have you ever been driving down the interstate, not paying particular attention to the cars passing by in the opposite direction. Suddenly, you spot a police car. You weren't looking for one and perhaps you weren't even speeding. But, through life, you have programmed your eyes to alert you when a vehicle arises with little lights on the top. You may have had the same experience only to find that it was a car with a ski or bike rack on the top. So, we have perception filters which, while generally helping us also often unconsciously shape our reality.

Statistics tend to be a short-hand for important information. They also tend to be numeric, so that they are easily portrayed with graphs and charts. So, when trying to magnify the difference between numbers, rather than using a line or even a bar, use a three dimensional object, because we 'see' images as objects. After all, we never really 'see' anything but images, though we infer a 3D world around us.

Whenever attempting to interpret summary information (and it is not generally possible to understand any amount of raw data) remember to ask yourself these three important questions.

What is the point? The graph is included to make a point. Make sure you understand the point before you look at the illustration of that point. Ask yourself if there are considerable reasons to think the point might be correct, before you look to the supporting data.

Who wins? Always ask, who is going to substantially benefit, should this point be correct.

Who wants what? Motives (especially unexamined) always shapes interpretation of data, never assume that scientists or statisticians are without motives, even corrupt ones.


* For a quick summary of the types of information in the book

Thursday, June 12, 2008

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I still remember my first seminar on modeling. I was shown how, with proper statistical techniques, done by a Ph.D. Statistician, one could find the top 20% of the customers who produced 80% of the profits in a mailing. Neiman Marcus ran the tests and the graphics were impressive. However, questions arose in my mind, I raised my hand. "You show very dramatic improvements over your control mailing, what customer segmentation method did you use for comparison?"

"A random sample." was the brusk reply. The answer, coming from a Dr. of Statistics probably went right by most of the audience. I knew, on the other hand, that just selecting the most recent 0-3 month buyers would probably generate similar if not better results. Adding segments of 3-6 and 6-12 would have ruined the beautiful presentation.

And those many years ago, I learned a very valuable lesson. It isn't just about testing, it is about test design and integrity. Direct Marketing does offer the possibility of learning. But it also offers the opportunity for manipulation and statistical deception. Next time you are listening to a public presentation about the magic of statistics or database segmentation or offer personalization, remember, if the numbers are detailed the client probably isn't present, if they are not detailed the testing was probably not valid.

We have been told for decades about how we can make money with data - the truth is, it is not such a simple truth.


An excellent article on the problems with digital data http://www.lewrockwell.com/giles/giles22.html

Thursday, May 15, 2008

The Basis of Direct Marketing

What mystified me about direct marketing was its science. "We can produce measurable results." I was told. "We can know what is working!" And to a large extent that is true. I was told that you could make your own way in this world, as long as you could "beat control". Since I have much more training in the philosophy of science than in marketing, so it seemed a natural fit.

Sharper Image began with a runners watch. The first ad done all by itself, made money. Richard Thalmeier, the founder, tried more ads... kept track and away he went. And back in the '80's, my business was mostly in teaching non-direct marketing companies the basics of measurement and testing. It worked best when it was kept simple... and then the claims of the Direct Marketers started expanding....

Monday, April 21, 2008

Getting Started in Direct Marketing

The question of Direct Marketing has gone through several evolutions. I remember when I was young, the national association was the Direct Mail Marketing Association. Direct mail went back into the 1800's, it was the proven, measurable and testable.

More than a few years ago, I was in a ad agency... I was the 'direct mail' guy. They asked me, "What is the difference between what we do and direct marketing?" So I wrote an article, Why Direct Marketing is Misunderstood. Excellent, check it out.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Getting a Blog Started

After over 20 years in my own consulting business and over 30 in the industry... its time to dredge up some of those 'brilliant' ideas and post them to the Net for all to see. Of course its one thing to start a blog and quite another to keep one going. So for the moment, I promise to start... only time will tell if I keep faithful. Feel free to contact me if you'd like to prod me into consistency... or just get an interesting question answered. My career started in design, print sales, industrial sales then consulting. Now I do strategic planning and analytical statistics... my my. And whether qualified or not, I'm happy to share on almost any topic. Let the dialog begin